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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."