This Remarkable Scoring Streak Propels Villa's Improbable Title Charge
It was eight weeks prior when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, while the positive results have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.